It feels like there unlimited upside when you hear about some private companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, etc, but this article just sums up Andurils position so well.
They are a hardware company being priced like a software company. Their margins are going to be thinner than the legacy defense primes, but they are being valued like they are a software company with 80% margins.
I think for the investors that got in years ago they'll have a nice return after Andurils IPO, but for those waiting to invest when Anduril hits the public market YOU NEED TO READ THIS.
Cut out the hype and look at the real data from the company. Palmer Luckey is commanding Elon like hype around his company. Anduril is awesome and I hope they do well, but it is going to be a hell of a ride to the top if Anduril can actually pull this off.
Not only that but they are years away from getting to mass production on many things. Which like you said, hope they succeed. But the amount of money they are going to dump on manufacturing infrastructure, RD to get Fury off from prototype to production ready is going to be wild.
The Musk equivalent is definitely strong. I would say that the main difference is how the valuation and revenue seem to be growing at a relatively similar rate, something that isn't true about SpaceX.
I totally agree as well about the risk of private companies. People see them as a golden ticket, they're not always.
Anduril will be fascinating going forward, excited to watch the company as it progresses.
The valuation tension you've identified is the right one — the market is pricing Anduril as a software growth stock while hardware costs mean it can never reach Palantir-style margins. That gap resolves either through the software layer becoming dominant enough to justify the premium, or a painful re-rating. The profitability timeline is the variable most investors are glossing over.
I believe KRKNF is used a lot in Anduril products specifically in anything maritime related obviously. Anduril's ghost shark uses both batteries and hardware if I am not mistaken. That being said, I will admit I am not an expert in KRKNF and don't want information over that might not be fully accurate.
Another incredible article.
It feels like there unlimited upside when you hear about some private companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, etc, but this article just sums up Andurils position so well.
They are a hardware company being priced like a software company. Their margins are going to be thinner than the legacy defense primes, but they are being valued like they are a software company with 80% margins.
I think for the investors that got in years ago they'll have a nice return after Andurils IPO, but for those waiting to invest when Anduril hits the public market YOU NEED TO READ THIS.
Cut out the hype and look at the real data from the company. Palmer Luckey is commanding Elon like hype around his company. Anduril is awesome and I hope they do well, but it is going to be a hell of a ride to the top if Anduril can actually pull this off.
Not only that but they are years away from getting to mass production on many things. Which like you said, hope they succeed. But the amount of money they are going to dump on manufacturing infrastructure, RD to get Fury off from prototype to production ready is going to be wild.
Hey! Thanks for the comment :)
The Musk equivalent is definitely strong. I would say that the main difference is how the valuation and revenue seem to be growing at a relatively similar rate, something that isn't true about SpaceX.
I totally agree as well about the risk of private companies. People see them as a golden ticket, they're not always.
Anduril will be fascinating going forward, excited to watch the company as it progresses.
This company is wild
His goggles that can see through walls!
Love the land mine comparison, excellent article!
The valuation tension you've identified is the right one — the market is pricing Anduril as a software growth stock while hardware costs mean it can never reach Palantir-style margins. That gap resolves either through the software layer becoming dominant enough to justify the premium, or a painful re-rating. The profitability timeline is the variable most investors are glossing over.
Excellent summary of what I think is the most important point in this article. Just because a company is massive doesn't mean it is profitable.
Thanks you and hope you enjoyed :)
How much krknf battery and software is there across their product verticals?
you should do a deep dive. other big 5 defense guys using their tech too. i am there in full disclosure. and thx for all the idea generation.
Your saying I should do a piece on Kraken Robotics?
100%
Hey! Good question.
I believe KRKNF is used a lot in Anduril products specifically in anything maritime related obviously. Anduril's ghost shark uses both batteries and hardware if I am not mistaken. That being said, I will admit I am not an expert in KRKNF and don't want information over that might not be fully accurate.